Five years since trading officially commenced under the African Continental Free Trade Area, the numbers have not shifted in the way the agreement’s architects had hoped.
Intra-African trade still accounts for only about 15 to 18 per cent of the continent’s total merchandise volumes, according to figures tracked by Afreximbank and UNCTAD. Before the AfCFTA launched, the share was 16 per cent, compared with 59 per cent in Asia and 68 per cent in Europe. The gap has barely moved.
AfCFTA Secretary-General Wamkele Mene, speaking at the Invest in Africa Trade Expo and Business Summit 2026, confirmed that intra-African trade reached $220 billion in 2024 and said the figure was expected to grow by a further 10 per cent this year, reaching an estimated $230 billion. That is growth, but still a fraction of what the continent’s single market of 1.4 billion people should be generating.
A February 2026 analysis by The Habari Network described the gap between promise and performance as starker than ever, and said Africa’s trade problem is no longer about vision but about execution.
Why Financing Still Limits Intra-African Trade
One of the most concrete obstacles holding intra-African trade back is the shortage of credit at the point of transaction.
The African Development Bank’s 2025 Trade Finance Report, released at the bank’s Annual Meetings in Brazzaville, put unmet demand for trade finance across the continent at between $74 billion and $92 billion in 2024. The lower estimate of $74 billion represents 5.4 per cent of Africa’s total merchandise trade value for that year.
The AfDB warned that renewed geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions could widen the gap to between $86.6 billion and $102.6 billion by 2027, at least 17.7 per cent above 2024 levels, potentially erasing a decade of progress.
Small and medium-sized enterprises were identified as the hardest hit, consistently shut out of the financing they need to fulfil orders across borders.
In April 2026, AfCFTA Secretary-General Mene held talks with the Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr John Asiamah, specifically to address the high cost of cross-border payments, which both sides acknowledged as a major bottleneck preventing intra-African trade from expanding.
The barrier behind the barrier
Cutting tariffs was always only part of the job. Research now suggests it may not even be the most important part of intra-African trade.
The World Bank estimates that two-thirds of the $450 billion income gain projected from full AfCFTA implementation would come from reducing non-tariff barriers rather than from tariff cuts alone.
Brookings Institution research has found that the cost of non-tariff barriers for African traders is equivalent to an 18 per cent import tariff, meaning that even where formal duties have been removed, hidden frictions continue to inflate prices by a comparable amount.
Logistics costs alone can account for up to 40 per cent of traded goods’ value in Africa. Before the AfCFTA launched, the average customs dwell time on the continent stood at 126 hours, and logistics costs were running at nearly double the global average.
The AfCFTA agreement requires each country to draw up a time-bound plan to eliminate non-tariff barriers, but progress has been slow. Welthungerhilfe’s review of implementation noted that effective reforms must prioritise cross-border infrastructure, digital permits, one-stop border posts, and the harmonisation of food quality and safety standards.
In March 2026, AfCFTA Secretary-General Mene met with the Executive Secretary of the Abidjan-Lagos Corridor Organisation to address trade corridor challenges in West and Central Africa, with discussions focused on reducing clearance delays and leveraging digital systems to move goods faster across borders.
Signs of Progress in Intra-African Trade
There are genuine gains to report. Customs clearance times along the Tema-Abidjan corridor fell from 12 hours to 9.5 hours. More than half of the 220 non-tariff barrier complaints lodged through AfCFTA’s online platform were resolved, with an average resolution time of 39 days.
The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, developed by Afreximbank and the African Union, is also beginning to reduce the cost of cross-border payments. Mene said at the Invest in Africa summit that when fully operational, PAPSS has the potential to save the continent approximately $5 billion annually in transaction costs.
As of December 2025, 49 countries had both signed and deposited their instruments of AfCFTA ratification with the African Union Commission. By the time of the 2026 business summit, Mene said that figure had grown to 50 ratifying states, with tariff elimination processes being operationalised and negotiations on rules of origin substantially concluded.
Imagining full Intra-African trade
The UN Economic Commission for Africa projects that full AfCFTA implementation could lift up to 50 million people out of extreme poverty and create 17.9 million jobs by 2035. By 2045, Africa’s GDP is expected to increase by 1.2 per cent, equivalent to $140.6 billion, if the agreement is fully operational.
The ECA projects the value of intra-African trade will increase by over 400 per cent by 2045, though it has warned that outcome depends entirely on full implementation.
For now, African businesses, particularly smaller ones, are still trading across borders in a system that costs too much, waits too long and lends too little. The framework exists. The question AfCFTA’s supporters are increasingly asking is whether the political will to use it fully is there.
