Taiwo Oyedele made the admission on Friday, turning the dispute over Dangote Refinery crude supply into a sharper political argument ahead of the 2027 election.
Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today, he was blunt.
“We don’t have enough to service Dangote. Dangote imports crude,” Oyedele said.
He put national output at about 1.8 million barrels a day, then explained why that does not mean the government has 1.8 million barrels to distribute. Production-sharing contracts and joint ventures divide output among the parties, while production costs and royalties are accounted for before the government’s remaining share is determined.
What is left, he said, is less than the 700,000 barrels a day required to meet Dangote Refinery crude supply.
That figure is close to the plant’s stated processing capacity. The US Energy Information Administration has previously reported a capacity of 650,000 barrels a day, while more recent Nigerian industry reporting puts the refinery’s nameplate capacity at 700,000. The distinction matters: actual throughput can exceed nameplate capacity, as the regulator’s August figures later showed.
The 1.8 million-barrel figure also includes condensates. NNPC put September output at 1.821 million barrels a day on that basis, while the upstream regulator, NUPRC, recorded 1.68 million barrels a day for August, including about 1.5 million barrels of crude oil.
The political dispute is about what Nigeria can supply, not simply what it produces. Atiku Abubakar, the former vice-president seeking the presidency in 2027, has proposed a production subsidy that would reduce the cost of crude sold to local refiners. He describes his approach as “a subsidy for Nigerian production”.
Oyedele dismissed calls for discounted crude, arguing that those making the proposals did not understand the available volumes. He did not name anyone.
A day earlier, he had announced a 30-day petrol discount at NNPC retail stations, with priority for public transporters. The government says NNPC will forgo its retail profit margin rather than restore the fuel subsidy abolished in 2023. Atiku’s objection was brief: “What happens on Day 31?”
Meanwhile, petrol is selling at about N1,400 a litre, according to Channels Television, up from N830 before the war in the Middle East. Dangote raised its gantry price four times between 21 August and 12 September, from N1,165 to N1,350, according to circulars sent to marketers. For motorists, the crude-supply argument is not an accounting exercise. It is part of the explanation for what they pay at the pump.
But the numbers raise an awkward question. If the government has so little freely available crude, how did Nigerian refineries receive 683,000 barrels a day in August?
That was the figure reported by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), a 17 per cent increase on July. The Dangote refinery operated at an average of about 105 per cent of nameplate capacity during the month. Between January and August, local refineries received 137.98 million barrels of crude. Nigerian crude accounted for 109.88 million barrels, while the remaining 28.10 million arrived from abroad.
The figures are not necessarily contradictory. The regulator counts crude received by domestic refineries, regardless of whether it came from Nigeria or overseas. Oyedele is talking about the government’s available share after contractual obligations and other deductions. Some Nigerian crude may also be purchased commercially rather than allocated freely by the state.
There is another consideration: the type of crude matters. Oyedele said Nigerian crude alone would not be the refinery’s most suitable input and that Dangote would still need to import some heavier grades. The supply problem, therefore, is not simply a question of directing every available Nigerian barrel to the plant.
The Dangote Refinery crude supply dispute is not new. NNPC began selling crude to Dangote in naira in October 2024. Earlier this year, the refinery complained that it was receiving five cargoes when it needed 15. The continuing argument over Dangote Refinery crude supply reflects a gap between the volumes the plant needs and the crude available through existing arrangements.
Then there is the government’s own refining record. The Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries produced nothing in August, according to the NMDPRA. Nigeria is struggling to secure enough crude for its largest operating refinery while its three state-owned plants remain idle.
Oyedele says the answer is to increase production. As more barrels become available, he expects Nigeria to supply Dangote and other local refiners more fully. He also hopes the country will eventually refine all the crude it produces at home and export only refined products.
That is a long-term ambition, not immediate relief at the pump. Until more suitable crude becomes available through workable supply arrangements, Nigerians will continue to face high petrol prices while the government explains the limits of its available barrels. The opposition now has a clear question to take into 2027: if Nigeria produces the oil, why can it not guarantee Dangote Refinery crude supply?
