A series of explosions heard across Addis Ababa on Wednesday night has fuelled speculation that Ethiopia’s widening conflict may be edging closer to the capital.
A diplomatic source, speaking to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity, heard the first of the Addis Ababa explosions at about 7pm on Wednesday. Residents near the headquarters reported another blast near a factory past midnight.
An intelligence official in the same report confirmed that the Addis Ababa explosions were three blasts in three different locations. The official offered nothing more.
Nobody has said what caused the Addis Ababa explosions. It remains unclear, the AP reported, whether they were an attack or training exercises at the defence headquarters.
A claim has rushed in to fill the gap. Three diplomatic sources told Reuters they heard explosions overnight. Separately, a source linked to the opposition alliance said the group had carried out several drone strikes on the capital, some aimed at the military’s headquarters.
The absence of visible damage has made independent verification difficult, leaving officials, diplomats and residents relying largely on second-hand accounts.
If confirmed, it would be the first known drone attack on the capital by anti-government forces. Addis Ababa lies hundreds of kilometres from the fighting in Tigray, Amhara and Afar.
An opposition ability to strike Addis Ababa would be a “political game-changer”, according to Edward Bach, a senior Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.
In his reading, it would cut against any government line that the capital is untouched by the war. It would also chip away at the army’s biggest edge, control of the skies.
The government has said little about the Addis Ababa explosions. Spokespeople for the pm’s office, the federal government and the army did not respond to requests for comment.
The one official move came earlier. The National Intelligence and Security Service, banned all drone flights over the capital and its surroundings indefinitely on Wednesday. The first blast followed within hours.
Could an opposition force really have armed drones behind the Addis Ababa explosions? Until now, it was not known to. On Tuesday, the pro-government Tigray Peace Forces militia said it had captured drone frames and batteries from forces linked to the TPLF. That claim is also unverified, though Reuters says there is growing evidence of some drone capability.
To see why the Addis Ababa explosions matter, go back to 20 September. That day, seven armed movements announced the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, with a stated aim of removing PM Abiy Ahmed’s government.
Three days later, the US Embassy recorded reports that Tigrayan forces had taken the airports at Mekelle, Axum and Shire. Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to all three.The alliance brings together groups that were recently on opposite sides of the battlefield.
Its largest members are the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army. Fano fighters fought alongside federal forces against the TPLF during the last war, now both sit within the same coalition despite continuing disputes over western Tigray.
The Pretoria Agreement of November 2022 ended that war, which killed hundreds of thousands of people. It has not survived this month. Jervin Naidoo, a senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, said the deal saw “consistent violations on both sides” even while it held.
Each side now blames the other for the latest fighting. Tigrayan forces say they answered a federal offensive. The government says the TPLF struck first.
The last war went differently. Federal forces took Mekelle within a month, and TPLF fighters withdrew into the surrounding mountains. This time, the Tigray Peace Forces say they have taken Korem, about 100 kilometres south of Mekelle, alongside the army. Yet the alliance holds towns in Afar, and the Addis Ababa explosions have raised the question of whether its reach extends to the capital.
Civilians sit in the middle. About 16,000 people have lived in the Hitsats camp in north-western Tigray for six years. One resident told the AP that “drones hover in the sky every day”.
The Addis Ababa explosions also come as diplomats press for talks. The African Union has urged an immediate halt. It has asked former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, who helped mediate the 2022 deal, to engage the parties urgently. The United Nations has called for de-escalation and dialogue.
Beyond the unanswered questions surrounding the Addis Ababa explosions, diplomats fear that any confirmed strike on the capital could further complicate efforts to revive negotiations.
For now, the facts are thin. Blasts were heard. An intelligence official confirmed them. A claim of responsibility from an unnamed source remains unproven. Whatever lies behind the Addis Ababa explosions, the timing, hours after a drone ban, is hard to ignore.
A drone ban can keep hobbyists out of the sky. Whether it can keep a war out of the capital is another matter.
