Motorists had been led to expect cheaper fuel from Monday. By Tuesday, the Dangote petrol price had gone up by N85 a litre.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised its petrol gantry price to N1,300 per litre from N1,215. Petroleumprice.ng reported the change, while Legit.ng relayed a customer notice stating that the new rate applies to petrol loaded from 12:00 a.m. on 3 November.
The coastal lifting price is now N1,676,250 per metric tonne. That puts the Dangote petrol price 7 per cent above its previous level.
It is also a U-turn. It comes two days after a cut that had lifted hopes at filling stations.
The N1,215 rate was confirmed on 31 October. Daily Post reported that Olatide Jeremiah, chief executive of Petroleumprice.ng, said it applied to consortium marketers. Abubakar Maigandi, president of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, welcomed the cut. It was, he said, “a good thing for Nigerians”.
Pump prices were then running at between N1,370 and N1,429 per litre, and a drop was expected from Monday. Relief did not last. The Dangote petrol price now sits N85 above that rate.
The year has been a steep climb for the Dangote petrol price. The refinery charged N774 per litre in February, according to its own customer notice. By 12 September it had reached N1,350, the fourth increase in under a month, Legit.ng reported. A N25 cut followed nine days later. By 31 October the rate was N1,215.
At N1,300, the Dangote petrol price is about 68 per cent above its February level.
N1,215 was not a new number either. Legit.ng reported that the refinery set the same rate on 22 July, when it went back to naira sales after a week of dollar pricing.
The depot lists tell a less tidy story. Petroleumprice.ng figures published by Legit.ng show Masters quoting N1,283 per litre and Bulk Strategic N1,284. Aiteo, Nipco and Rain Oil each listed N1,290. Northwest and Soroman asked N1,318. Dangote’s own depot rate on the list was N1,302.
Compare that with 29 October. An earlier Legit.ng listing had Dangote’s Lagos depot price at N1,290, down from N1,308. Against that, N1,302 is a rise of just N12, while the gantry price moved by N85.
The comparison with 29 October is revealing. An earlier Legit.ng listing put Dangote’s Lagos depot price at N1,290, down from N1,308. The latest N1,302 listing therefore represents an increase of just N12, against the N85 rise in the refinery’s gantry price.
The figures may not be strictly comparable, since gantry and depot prices reflect different points in the supply chain. Even so, the gap raises a fair question: how much of the earlier cut in the Dangote petrol price actually reached buyers outside the consortium?
Crude does not explain the timing neatly. Brent futures settled at $114.88 a barrel on 29 October. On Monday, 2 November, they fell by 7.63 per cent to $104.77 as hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict eased concerns about supply disruptions. Refiners do not necessarily pass such movements on immediately, since crude is purchased ahead of processing.
The refinery has argued before that it cannot hold the Dangote petrol price below what its crude costs. It said so in March, when it lifted the price by N100 as conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran pushed crude higher.
Supply is the other thread. In July the refinery said the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited had delivered fewer than a quarter of the crude cargoes it expected. Those were due under the naira-for-crude programme. NNPC Ltd disputed that, saying it had allocated every available naira cargo.
In September, NNPC chief executive Bayo Ojulari said the company supplies a set number of cargoes in naira. Beyond those, he said, “the extra crude that are available, we only supply in dollar.”
A refinery that earns naira but buys part of its crude in dollars carries an exchange rate risk. Legit.ng linked this week’s rise to a new fixed-naira pricing arrangement but did not set out the terms. By Wednesday morning the refinery had not publicly explained the Dangote petrol price rise.
The refinery added N85, yet the cheapest depot is already quoting N17 below its new gantry price. The motorist, as ever, will settle the argument at the pump.
