September 16th can’t come fast enough for millions of Malawians. Five years of broken promises and economic collapse have left voters ready to make their voices heard. With 19 candidates vying for the presidency and the country drowning in its worst financial crisis in decades, this election feels different. More desperate. More crucial than any in recent memory.
Walk around Lilongwe or Blantyre these days and the evidence hits you immediately. Empty storefronts. Fuel lines that stretch for blocks. Hospitals that have basically run out of everything. About 75% of people are living in serious poverty. Inflation? It’s pushing 30%. The major concern of most families is not politics, the only thing occupying their mind is about how to survival.
An Uphill Battle for the Incumbent
In 2020, when President, Lazarus Chakwera took office, he was riding high. The courts had thrown out what was obviously a rigged election. It looked like Malawi’s democracy might actually work. The 70-year-old former preacher promised jobs, economic growth, clean government. People bought it.
Five years later, no one is buying it.
Imran Alick speaking from South Africa, where he had fled when things got unbearable back home, said,
“President Chakwera promised that a lot of things were going to change, but they didn’t. They promised us everything. We trusted them. Five years later? Nothing.”
Hard to argue with that. The economy’s collapsed under Chakwera’s watch. His Tonse Alliance crumbled after Vice President Saulos Chilima’s death. Major retailers like Shoprite have abandoned the country entirely. Even Chakwera’s biggest cheerleaders struggle to point to concrete wins beyond a cancer center and some youth programs, decent gestures that feel pretty hollow when families can’t put food on the table.
Recent polling shows only 26% of Malawians think Chakwera will win. A very devastating poll for an incumbent. His campaign tried to blame it on global economic pressures and the pandemic, but voters are done with excuses.
Peter Mutharika the 85-Year-Old Frontrunner
Here’s where it gets weird. Peter Mutharika, the 85-year-old former president whose 2019 re-election was literally thrown out by courts for fraud is leading polls at 43%.
Just let that sink in for a second.
When I asked about Mutharika, James Mvula practically yelled,
“I love it, I love it, I love it, bring him back!” .
James left Malawi because “the economy is so bad” but he remembers when things worked better.
“He’s an economist. He has to come back.”
This nostalgia is everywhere among Malawians living abroad. Alex Maoza gets wistful:
“When Peter Mutharika was in power, everything was going well. Now they’ve shut down Shoprite, closed other shops.”
Smith Dyson rattles off specifics:
“He built schools, technical colleges. Provided bus rides for students. He actually kept his promises.”
Sure, Mutharika’s age is concerning. Eighty-five is old for any job, never mind running a country. The corruption allegations haven’t vanished. But when you’re choosing between someone who let you down recently and someone you remember fondly, nostalgia usually wins.
Mutharika’s real ace is potentially uniting the opposition. If he can rally other anti-Chakwera candidates, the president’s math becomes impossible.
 Banda’s Gender Challenge
Joyce Banda brings a different complexity into the game, she has actually been president before. Malawi’s first female leader, she served from 2012-2014 and earned an international reputation for championing women’s rights. At 74, she’s back promising youth employment.
But even her supporters show the mountain she’s climbing. Smith Dyson praises her track record, then drops this:
“Sometimes we think maybe women can’t rule a nice country like we expect.”
It’s a jarring reminder that gender stereotypes still haunt Malawian politics, even for proven leaders.
Her People’s Party just doesn’t have the war chest to compete with the big parties. In a field of 19 candidates, breaking through needs either serious cash or lightning-in-a-bottle momentum. Banda’s got neither right now.
The Economics of Desperation
Everything circles back to the economy. I really can’t overstate this, Malawi is broke in ways that make ordinary life unbearable.
James Mvula’s story says it all. He “ran away from Malawi” because he couldn’t make it work. Now he’s stuck in South Africa, separated from family, trying to wire money to relatives who are “crying too much.” Even when he sends cash, his parents complain “the country is not good.”
The statistics are jaw-dropping, but it’s the human cost that matters. Hospitals without medicine. Schools missing books. Businesses shuttering because they can’t get foreign currency for imports. University graduates hawking tomatoes on street corners because there are no jobs.
This economic meltdown has completely scrambled the political landscape. Being president during this disaster isn’t an advantage, it’s a curse. Opposition candidates don’t need thick policy manifestos. They just gesture around and promise “we’ll fix this.” For many voters, that’s plenty.
The Math Game
Malawi’s electoral system gets interesting here. You need 50% plus one to win outright, or the top two face a runoff. With 19 people running, nobody’s hitting 50% in round one.
This makes alliances critical. Chakwera’s banking on the opposition staying fractured, maybe he limps into a runoff with 25-30% if the anti-government vote splits enough ways. But if Mutharika builds a united opposition coalition? It’s over.
The runoff possibility also shifts voting behaviour. Instead of strategic voting for whoever seems most electable, people can actually back their preferred candidate. If that person doesn’t make the final two, they get another shot.
Diaspora Voices Matter
What strikes me about talking to Malawians abroad is how intensely they’re following this election. These aren’t people who left and forgot—they’re wiring money home, worrying about family, planning to vote if possible.
Their views matter because they’ve experienced both sides. They remember what worked under previous governments and they’re living with the consequences of what’s failing now. When Alex Maoza says “If we elect Peter Mutharika, we know he’s going to bring all things together,” that’s not just campaign talk. It’s rooted in actual experience.
What’s Really at Stake
This election tests whether democracy can deliver for poor countries facing impossible economic challenges. Since 1993, Malawi has actually done pretty well with democracy. Presidents have left office peacefully. The courts work independently. Civil society groups stay active. That whole mess in 2019 when they overturned fraudulent election results? It actually made the system stronger.
Here’s the thing though – institutions are only as good as what they deliver for regular people. Democracy in Malawi has notoriously produced the same results: poverty, no jobs, empty store shelves. To a point that now, people are wondering if there’s a better way.
Aulious Jabesi, a young Malawian living in South Africa, shot straight with his words: “We want to see some changes because we are not okay.” Smith Dyson adds the key caveat: “I want to see nice elections, no fighting, because people are expecting a lot.”
People are hungry for a change, they want normalcy, however, they want it without violence and loss of lives. How Malawi handles the coming election will determine what happens to democracy in the country, years to come.
September 16th and Beyond
Six weeks from now, Malawians vote. What happens next matters way beyond Malawi’s borders. Here’s the big question: can a small, poor, landlocked country actually fix its economy through elections? Or do people eventually get so fed up with poverty and corruption that they stop believing in voting altogether?
The early signs aren’t good for Chakwera. Mutharika’s poll lead reflects real anger with the current government’s record. But polls aren’t votes, and 19 candidates create wild card dynamics.
What’s guaranteed is that whoever wins inherits problems no single leader can fix quickly. Malawi’s challenges run deeper than any administration—geographic isolation, climate vulnerability, narrow economic base, global supply chain chaos. The next president needs voter support, sure, but also luck, international backing, and probably several years before anyone can fairly judge their success.
Still, elections matter because they offer hope that change is possible. As Smith Dyson puts it,
“We want a leader who can manage to fulfil his promises, having a good government.”
Simple request. Remarkably tough to deliver.
In six weeks, we’ll start finding out whether Malawi’s democracy is up for the challenge.
