LAGOS — In a stark assessment that has sent ripples through economic and political circles, African Development Bank President Dr. Akinwumi Adesina revealed a troubling reality: Nigeria’s economy has not just stagnated but regressed significantly since independence, with citizens now earning less than half of what they did in 1960.
Speaking to Nigeria’s financial elite at the Chapel Hill Denham 20th anniversary celebration in Lagos, Adesina presented sobering statistics that challenge Nigeria’s narrative as Africa’s leading economy.
“The numbers tell a story few want to acknowledge,” Adesina stated, his voice resonating through the hushed ballroom. “Our GDP per capita in 1960 was $1,847. Today, it stands at a mere $824. The average Nigerian is economically worse off than their grandparents were at independence 64 years ago.”
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This revelation is particularly striking given Nigeria’s status as Africa’s most populous nation and its abundant natural resources, including vast oil reserves that have generated trillions in revenue over decades.
A Legacy of Missed Opportunities
The economic deterioration Adesina described didn’t happen overnight. It represents the culmination of decades of policy failures, institutional decay, and an unhealthy dependence on oil exports that has left Africa’s potential powerhouse vulnerable to global price fluctuations.
Nigeria’s economic journey contrasts sharply with countries like South Korea, which started with a lower GDP per capita than Nigeria in the 1960s. While Nigeria’s development stalled and reversed, South Korea transformed into an industrial giant with per capita income exceeding $36,000 today—more than 40 times Nigeria’s current level.
“This isn’t just about numbers on a spreadsheet,” explained Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organisation and former Nigerian Finance Minister, in an earlier interview. “It represents real opportunities lost for generations of Nigerians who have watched their purchasing power erode while countries with fewer natural advantages surged ahead.”
A Five-Point Path to Redemption
Adesina, who previously served as Nigeria’s Agriculture Minister before taking the helm at AfDB, outlined an ambitious but necessary roadmap for Nigeria’s economic renaissance:
- Universal electricity access – addressing the persistent power shortages that have crippled industrial development
- World-class infrastructure – modernising transportation networks crucial for economic integration
- Rapid industrialisation – moving beyond raw material exports to value-added manufacturing
- Innovation-driven growth – leveraging technology to leapfrog development challenges
- Competitive agriculture – transforming the sector that employs most Nigerians from subsistence to commercial scale
“Nigeria belongs in the league of developed nations,” Adesina declared. “To get there, we must fundamentally shift our mindset and pursue rapid, sustainable economic growth backed by bold structural reforms and strong institutions.”
The Private Sector as Catalyst
The AfDB president highlighted the recently completed Dangote Refinery—Africa’s largest petroleum refining facility—as an example of how private investment can drive transformative projects. The $19 billion complex is expected to save Nigeria billions in foreign exchange previously spent importing refined petroleum products despite being one of the world’s largest crude oil producers.
“We must leverage Nigeria’s considerable assets—our pension funds, diaspora expertise, and capital markets—to power this transformation,” Adesina urged. “The government cannot and should not do this alone.”
Financial experts at the event noted that Nigeria’s pension assets, now exceeding $30 billion, represent a significant untapped resource for infrastructure and industrial development.
A Nation at the Crossroads
Adesina’s warning comes at a critical juncture for Nigeria, which faces mounting debt, stubborn inflation exceeding 30%, and growing social unrest. Without credible reforms, he cautioned, Nigeria risks falling further behind globally and failing its rapidly growing population, expected to reach 400 million by 2050.
“Underdevelopment should not be accepted as our destiny,” Adesina concluded, challenging both government and private sector leaders. “We must break free from this pattern of decline. Nigeria deserves better, and Nigerians deserve the dignity of prosperity.”
As attendees departed the elegantly appointed venue, the contrast between the opulence of the gathering and the economic reality described by Adesina underscored the urgent need for the transformation he advocated—a transformation that will require both political will and sustained commitment from Nigeria’s leaders and citizens alike.
Nnaji nwa Nnaji be Oruruo
