Abidjan – On a hot August afternoon in Yopougon, Abidjan’s working-class stronghold, thousands of protesters packed the streets chanting “No more terms!” while waving portraits of Laurent Gbagbo. A week earlier, similar scenes had played out downtown, where tens of thousands of opposition supporters braved heavy police presence to denounce President Alassane Ouattara’s expected run for another mandate.
These were not isolated gatherings. August 9th and 16th marked two of the biggest street mobilisations Ivory Coast has seen in more than a decade, setting the tone for what could be the most volatile election year since the disputed polls of 2010 that incidentally ousted Gbagbo and brought Ouattara to power.
Old wounds reopen
For many in Ivory Coast, the rallies are not just about the next elections, it is about painful memories that never healed. Back in 2010, when Ouattara was declared winner over Gbagbo, dispute over the election spiralled into a conflict that claimed more than 3,000 lives, fractured the army, leading to a forced international intervention.
Fifteen years later, the same figures are back at the center. Ouattara, well into his eighties, signals he is ready for yet another run. Gbagbo, once cast out and later acquitted at the International Criminal Court, is staging a return with the energy of a comeback tour. Guillaume Soro, the former rebel leader turned Ouattara ally turned opponent, is in exile but still looms large in the conversation.
“The faces have not changed, and neither have the tensions,” said an Abidjan-based political scientist. “It is like the clock stopped in 2010.”
Divided streets
The election map is already visible on the ground. In Abobo, one of Ouattara’s strongholds in the northern suburb, the president’s posters cover shopfronts. While in Yopougon, chants of “Gbagbo, Gbagbo” echo all through the nights. Student unions, trade groups, and even religious organizations are splitting along political lines.
Young Ivorians, who make up the majority of the population, say they feel trapped. “We are asked to choose between the same men who failed us before,” said Koffi, a 24-year-old university student. “Jobs, food, rent — that is what matters to us. But the politicians fight about power, not solutions.”
Regional stakes rising
The Ivorian election is not just a domestic affair. West Africa is already under strain from military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. For ECOWAS, another crisis in Ivory Coast, the region’s top cocoa exporter and one of its economic engines, would be a major setback.
“If Abidjan falls into chaos, it won’t stay in Abidjan,” a regional diplomat told AfricaNewsBits. “Ivory Coast is the economic hub, the world’s top cocoa producer, and a transit point for the entire region. Another crisis here would hit everyone.”
Traders in other cities across West Africa like, Lagos and Accra are watching closely; prices of cocoa are already jittery on fears of major disruption. The seaport in Abidjan does not just handle local exports and imports but it also serves landlocked neighbours like Mali and Burkina Faso.
Economy under strain
Beyond politics, households are squeezed by rising costs. Food vendors in Treichville complain that imported rice and cooking oil prices keep climbing. Taxi drivers say fuel hikes eat into their earnings. In the west, cocoa farmers worry a return to unrest could paralyze harvests and block exports, just as it did in 2010.
“I saw my beans rot when roads were blocked back then,” said Mariam, a farmer near Daloa. “We cannot survive another season like that.”
Despite impressive growth figures blasted all over news headlines, unemployment among youth remains high. Many complain that even when jobs exist, wages can hardly kept up with inflation. The sense that leaders focus more on political survival than on daily hardship fuels resentment.
Tense calm before the storm
For now, protests remain largely peaceful, though security forces are quick to deploy. Tear gas has already been used in smaller marches outside Abidjan, and opposition leaders warn of growing intimidation. The government insists it is acting within the law to preserve order.
Ouattara’s camp dismisses talk of crisis. “The president has respected the constitution and delivered development,” said a ruling party spokesman. “The opposition is playing with fire by calling for confrontation instead of elections.”
But many Ivorians remain unconvinced. The sheer size of August’s rallies has rattled even seasoned observers. “It shows people are not just watching quietly — they are ready to push back,” said a civil society activist.
A nation on edge
As campaign for the election begins to gather pace, the stakes could not have been higher. Opposition leaders insist they want change through the ballot box, but few forget how fast 2010 spiralled into bloodshed.
“The fear is not imaginary,” said an Ivorian journalist who covered the last crisis. “The same players, the same divisions, and a region less stable than before — that is the reality.”
For many Ivorians, hope remains fragile. The chants may be loud, the flags may be bright, but behind the energy of the rallies lies a quiet fear — that history may be repeating itself.
