South Africa is undergoing its most profound political transformation since the end of apartheid in 1994. For the first time in three decades, the African National Congress (ANC) has lost its majority in parliament. This marks the end of one-party dominance and the beginning of an uncertain chapter in South African democracy: coalition governance.
The 2024 elections dealt a historic blow to the ANC, which secured just 40.18% of the national vote—its worst performance since democracy began. With 159 out of 400 seats in parliament, the ANC was forced to negotiate power-sharing arrangements to form a Government of National Unity (GNU).
The result is a coalition government with multiple moving parts, internal contradictions, and intense scrutiny from a restless public.
A Seismic Political Shift
The general elections revealed voter fatigue, anger at corruption, and impatience with economic stagnation. Voter turnout plummeted to 58.6%, underscoring growing disillusionment.
- ANC: 40.18% (159 seats) — lost majority and control in key provinces.
- DA: 21.81% (87 seats) — retained opposition status, gained in urban centres.
- MK (uMkhonto weSizwe): 14.58% (58 seats) — new Zuma-aligned party that dominated KwaZulu-Natal.
- EFF: 9.52% (39 seats) — stagnated, lost leadership to MK.
The ANC’s traditional strongholds crumbled in cities and among younger voters. The rise of MK, Jacob Zuma’s populist breakaway, further fractured the party’s base.
The Coalition Equation
On June 14, 2024, the ANC announced a Government of National Unity, echoing Mandela’s post-apartheid consensus-building government. But this time, unity came not from national healing—but from electoral necessity.
Major partners include:
- ANC: Retains presidency and most cabinet positions.
- Democratic Alliance (DA): Secured key ministries like Agriculture and Communications.
- Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP): Provided KwaZulu-Natal ballast.
Other minor partners represent urban, Muslim, coloured, and Afrikaner interests, making this one of the most ideologically diverse governments in South Africa’s history.
Tensions Beneath the Surface
The honeymoon was short-lived. By April 2025, a budget crisis threatened to collapse the GNU.
- Proposal: A 0.5% VAT increase to stabilise public finances.
- DA Response: Rejected tax hike, demanded spending cuts.
- Result: DA voted against the budget; ANC survived with help from smaller parties.
The fallout exposed deep ideological rifts. The DA filed a court case, accusing the ANC of breaching the coalition agreement. Trust between partners frayed.
Public Mood: Restless, Wary, Watching
An April 2025 opinion poll showed the DA edging ahead of the ANC for the first time since 1994. Yet public sentiment remains fragmented. In informal settlements, young people say they see little difference. In middle-class suburbs, uncertainty about economic reforms fuels anxiety.
One activist in Soweto remarked, “They say it’s a unity government, but nothing is unified about my life—no job, no electricity, no water.”
Opposition on the Edges: MK and EFF
Both the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and MK rejected the GNU. The EFF, once a major radical voice, is weakened by defections—including co-founder Floyd Shivambu’s shift to MK.
MK, meanwhile, has refused to participate in parliament, calling the elections rigged. Its disruptive politics, regional power in KwaZulu-Natal, and loyalty to Zuma create constant friction.
Security has been reinforced in the province amid fears of unrest.
Economic Pressures Shape Political Decisions
South Africa’s political experiment unfolds under crushing economic conditions:
- Unemployment: Over 30% nationally; youth unemployment above 60%.
- Infrastructure Failures: Load shedding, port backlogs, and water shortages hurt investment.
- Fiscal Pressures: Debt near 70% of GDP; 18 million people rely on social grants.
Internationally, trade ties with the U.S. face strain. Tariffs and AGOA uncertainty complicate South Africa’s global position. Meanwhile, BRICS relationships—especially with Russia and China—raise diplomatic dilemmas.
Will the GNU Survive? Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1: GNU Stabilises
- Moderate compromise on health, land, and BEE policies.
- Economic indicators improve, restoring confidence.
- Coalition holds through 2029.
Scenario 2: Coalition Collapse
- DA exits government amid policy clashes.
- Early elections are called.
- EFF and MK gain as anti-establishment alternatives.
Scenario 3: Radical Opposition Gains
- EFF and MK mobilise unemployed youth.
- Municipal unrest escalates.
- Coalition becomes increasingly defensive and unpopular.
Why This Matters Beyond South Africa
South Africa is a bellwether for democracy in southern Africa. Its success—or failure—in managing coalition governance will influence political transitions in Botswana, Namibia, Mozambique, and beyond.
International investors are watching closely. The outcome affects trade, migration, regional stability, and Africa’s broader democratic evolution.
Democracy on a Knife’s Edge
South Africa’s coalition era is a test of maturity—for its institutions, parties, and citizens. The end of one-party dominance has opened space for negotiation, compromise, and reform. But it has also exposed fragilities: economic desperation, political ego, and social impatience.
Whether this becomes a permanent transition or a temporary crisis depends on how leaders choose to govern—not just in Pretoria, but in places like Umlazi, Alexandra, and Khayelitsha.
As of mid-2025, the experiment endures. But history is watching—and so are 60 million South Africans.
